Donald Trump’s warning that he could impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran has raised concerns about a potential revival of tensions with Beijing, Iran’s most important commercial partner. Analysts say the move could challenge Chinese President Xi Jinping’s global posture and China’s commitment to protecting its overseas economic interests.
Iran Once Again a Flashpoint in U.S.–China Relations
Iran was a major source of friction between Washington and Beijing during Trump’s first term. At the time, the United States intensified sanctions on Tehran and took aim at Chinese technology giant Huawei, accusing it of supplying equipment linked to Iran. The detention of the company founder’s daughter in Canada, following a U.S. request, triggered a diplomatic backlash that lingered throughout the remainder of Trump’s presidency.
Now, with Iran again in Trump’s focus, the prospect of an additional 25% tariff could push the effective duties on Chinese goods entering the United States beyond 70%. That would exceed the estimated 57.5% level that existed before Washington and Beijing reached a deal last October aimed at easing their prolonged trade conflict.
Uncertainty Over Targets and Intent
Trump has not specified which countries could be affected by the proposed tariff, nor has he explicitly named China. The U.S. president has also previously floated foreign policy threats that were never fully implemented, leaving uncertainty over whether the latest remarks will translate into concrete action.
“China is being used as a pretext, a kind of cover, for increasing pressure on Iran,” said Wang Jin, a fellow at the Beijing Club for International Dialogue. He added that the scale of China’s current trade with Iran is often overstated.
China’s Trade With Iran Has Shrunk
Official Chinese customs data shows that Beijing has significantly reduced imports from Iran in recent years, as companies seek to avoid U.S. sanctions. China imported just $2.9 billion worth of Iranian goods in the first 11 months of last year, down sharply from a peak of $21 billion in 2018 during Trump’s first administration.
“China and Iran are not as closely linked as many people assume,” said a Beijing-based academic who advises China’s foreign ministry on Iran policy, speaking on condition of anonymity. While oil remains the backbone of their trade relationship, broader commercial ties have failed to expand, even as political relations have grown warmer.
Oil Trade and Sanctions Workarounds
China is estimated to handle around 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil exports through small, independent refiners that operate outside official channels to avoid U.S. sanctions tied to Tehran’s nuclear programme. State-owned Chinese oil companies, however, have avoided Iranian business since 2022. Some analysts believe these unofficial shipments push the true value of China’s oil purchases from Iran into the tens of billions of dollars.
Asked about Trump’s tariff remarks, China’s foreign ministry reiterated that trade wars benefit no one and said Beijing would “resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”
Analysts: Beijing Likely to Push Back
Observers say Trump’s tougher rhetoric on Iran could also place renewed scrutiny on Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative, in which Iran plays a strategic role as a transit hub for Chinese goods entering the Middle East. It may also test China’s stated commitment to non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs.
“Trump is bluffing again, and China will likely call that bluff,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University. He expressed scepticism that Washington would follow through with an additional 25% tariff on Chinese goods.
Trump has indicated he expects to visit Beijing in April, with analysts predicting the possibility of a broader trade agreement being announced during the trip.
Still, doubts remain over whether new tariffs would be fully enforced. “Last year, tariffs linked to alleged Russian oil trade were announced, but implementation was uneven,” said Xu Tianchen, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing. “The stakes are much higher when it comes to China.”
Xu warned that escalating trade measures could push relations toward direct confrontation, urging caution in Washington’s next steps.